L.A. Noire is expected to sell around 4 million units for Take Two in the 2012 financial year, according to analyst firm Cowen & Company. This would be half the number of copies of Red Dead Redemption in its lifetime sales.
With the weak sales of NBA 2K11, and the lack of trust in XCOM, Duke Nukem Forever and The Darkness II, which analyst Doug Creutz dismisses as "significantly aged franchises", Cowen & Company predicts a dropping in stock of Take Two.
"We do not view the rest of the company's line-up as likely to drive significant profitability, and are of the view that GTA V is not likely to ship until FY13," writes Creutz, "We believe initial management guidance for FY12 is likely to be even more conservative than our below-street estimate due to the possibility of an NBA lockout/strike which could impact sales of NBA 2K12."
"We also note that product announcements are no guarantee of actual (timely) delivery based on the company's spotty history of hitting ship dates," he adds. "We continue to believe that GTA V, as well as Max Payne 3 and/or Agent, are likely to ship during FY13 at the earliest."
Cowen & Company is therefore lowering its estimates per share to $1.00 from the consensus of $1.20 for the 2012 year.