Senior analyst Michael Pachter has reported his prediction of a slow uptake to digital distribution, noting it will increase but won't topple "packaged goods".
GTA IV's downloadable episode had a "tepid embrace", with Take-Two now to release it on physical media. New console hardware will be delayed by "ancillary revenues" like Natal.
Sony's PS3 wand and Microsoft's Natal, even a Wii HD, are all going to delay the launch of a new console cycle, which won't be before 2013 at the earliest claims Pachter. Digital distribution will keep on the rise but still equate to "less than 50 per cent of total game sales in ten years' time."
Grand Theft Auto IV's The Lost and Damned DLC is case-in-point to his hypothesis, that while it's a huge franchise with a major following, digital only has limited its impact with consumers.
"After a tepid embrace of its first downloadable episode, Take-Two decided to offer the first and second episodes in a combined physical package, with the two episodes allowing full game play without the purchase of the original GTA IV game disc," said Pachter.
"This model reinforces our belief that packaged goods will capture the majority of game purchases for the next ten years," noting that consumers will "never fully abandon physical media."
Physical media to remain King for another decade at least? Most likely, and for the next half century.